From Wenzel Strategies:
TO: Yost for Auditor of State campaign
FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies
RE: Statewide survey of likely voters in the race for Ohio Auditor of State
Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey of likely voters statewide in Ohio to gauge voter sentiment of the race for Auditor of State. The poll was conducted June 30-July 1, 2010, and included 597 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.99 percentage points.
Republican Dave Yost of Delaware County maintains a double-digit lead over Democrat David Pepper of Hamilton County, our recent survey of likely voters statewide in Ohio shows. This lead for Yost stands among those who are firmly committed in their choice for state auditor (Yost leads Pepper 32% to 22% among “firm” voters) and among all voters, including those who are leaning toward supporting one of the candidates but who could change their minds before voting.
Among all voters, Yost leads Pepper by a 46% to 28% margin.
One in four voters – 26% – said they were undecided about for whom to vote in the race for state auditor. This race is important because it the auditor fills one of five seats on the Ohio state Apportionment Board, the entity that draws legislative boundaries for state senate and state representative districts. The political party which controls the Apportionment Board has a distinct advantage in determining which party will control the General Assembly for the ensuing decade.
A significant factor boosting Yost at this early point in the General Election campaign is the support each candidate wins from their respective political parties. Pepper wins just 45% “firm” support from fellow Democrats, while another 12% of Democrats said that they are leaning toward supporting Pepper, for a combined support level among Democrats of 57%.
The support for Yost among fellow Republicans in much stronger. Among the GOP, 58% of voters say they are “firm” in their support of Yost, and another 16% of Republicans say they are leaning toward supporting Yost. This combined total 74% is very strong, as the average statewide candidate in Ohio who is successful needs nearly 80% support among their own political party in order to secure a victory statewide. Given that 21% of Republicans are yet undecided in this contest, Yost’s upside among his own political base is tremendous.
Worth noting is the fact that 22% of Democrats said they are either firm or leaning toward voting for the Republican Yost, while just 6% of Republicans said they are firm or leaning toward voting for Pepper. This reflects a national trend in which Republicans are seen as much more trustworthy than Democrats in terms of elective offices.
Geographically, Yost is stronger than one might expect in traditional Democratic Party strongholds across the northern tier of Ohio. In fact, Yost leads in every region of the state. Pepper trails Yost by a surprising margin in Northeast Ohio, where Democrats need to run strong to win statewide, as well as in his geographic “base” of Southwest Ohio. This means Pepper will have the added challenge of holding his base, while swimming upstream against a Republican tide in 2010. Properly funded, Dave Yost stands an excellent chance of winning this race.
Fantastic news…. Now let’s turn this into actual campaign donations for Dave Yost.